Is This Bonus Worth It? A Practical Method to Evaluate Online Casino Offers
Bonus pages are designed to spark FOMO. The match looks generous, the timer ticks down, and a bright button pushes you to deposit. Before you click, use this no-nonsense method to decide whether a casino offer is actually worth your time and bankroll. You’ll quantify value, pick the right games to clear, and set a stake plan that won’t implode halfway through wagering.
Step 1: Capture the terms that actually matter
Screenshots of confetti don’t clear wagering. These details do:
- Wagering multiplier and basis: Is it x on bonus only, or on bonus+deposit?
- Contribution by game: What percent of each bet counts toward rollover?
- RTP and volatility of the games you plan to play.
- Max bet while bonus is active.
- Expiry window (days) and excluded games.
- Sticky vs non‑sticky: With non‑sticky (“parachute”), your cash plays first and you can withdraw early wins before touching bonus funds.
- Withdrawal caps and country restrictions.
Step 2: Turn the headline offer into a real number
Two quick formulas unlock most offers:
- Total rollover = Wagering multiplier × Basis (bonus amount or bonus+deposit).
- Expected wagering cost = Total rollover × Effective house edge of your chosen game path.
Effective house edge (EHE) adjusts for contribution. If a game’s house edge is H and its contribution is C, then for each $1 of counted wagering, you actually bet $1/C. Expected loss per counted $1 is roughly H ÷ C.
| Game type | RTP | House edge (H) | Contribution (C) | Effective house edge per counted $1 (H ÷ C) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Typical slot | 96.5% | 3.5% | 100% | 3.5% |
| High‑RTP slot | 98.0% | 2.0% | 100% | 2.0% |
| Blackjack (good rules) | 99.5% | 0.5% | 10% | 5.0% |
Surprise: even superb blackjack is usually worse for clearing than a decent slot if its contribution is low.
Worked examples
Example A: 100% match up to $100, wagering 35× bonus, slots 100% contribution at 96.5% RTP.
- Total rollover = 35 × $100 = $3,500
- EHE = 3.5% (because C = 100%)
- Expected wagering cost = $3,500 × 0.035 = $122.50
- Net EV ≈ Bonus $100 − $122.50 = −$22.50 (skip)
Example B: Same offer, but you find a 98% RTP slot (still 100% contribution).
- EHE = 2.0%
- Expected cost = $3,500 × 0.02 = $70
- Net EV ≈ +$30 (worth considering)
Example C: 100% up to $200, wagering 30× (bonus + deposit), you deposit $200. Slots 96.5%.
- Basis = $200 + $200 = $400
- Total rollover = 30 × $400 = $12,000
- EHE = 3.5%
- Expected cost = $12,000 × 0.035 = $420; EV = $200 − $420 = −$220 (hard pass)
Step 3: Plan bet sizing to survive variance
Positive EV doesn’t help if you bust before you finish wagering. Two rules of thumb:
- Keep your bet per spin ≤ 0.5% of your total playable balance during the bonus.
- If a max-bet rule exists (e.g., $5), you may need to go below that to control volatility.
Rough workload estimate: Spins ≈ Total rollover ÷ Average bet. If Example B requires $3,500 in turnover and you bet $0.60 per spin, you’ll play ~5,833 spins. At 400 spins/hour, that’s about 14–15 hours—doable over a week, not in one evening.
Favor medium‑volatility slots with stable base‑game pay. Chasing ultra‑high volatility titles increases your risk of ruin and time to completion, even if RTP looks fine.
Step 4: Watch the landmines
- Max cashout on bonus wins: A hidden $200 cap can turn a good EV into dust.
- Excluded features: Bonus Buys, jackpots, and certain slots may void winnings.
- Non‑sticky edge: If the offer is non‑sticky, consider starting on low‑volatility, high‑RTP games with your cash. A quick early win can be withdrawn; if not, you still have the bonus safety net.
- Expiration: If you can’t finish the wagering in time with your schedule, it’s a non‑starter.
Quick comparison: which offer would you take?
| Offer | Key terms | Your plan | EV snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% up to $100; 35× bonus | Slots 100% @ 98% RTP; Max bet $2; 7 days | $0.60/spin, ~5,800 spins; 2 hours/day | ≈ +$30 EV; realistic to clear |
| 100% up to $200; 30× bonus+deposit | Slots 100% @ 96.5%; Max bet $5; 3 days | Needs $12k turnover; tight window | ≈ −$220 EV; time pressure; skip |
Walkthrough video
Here’s a short walkthrough you can reference while you evaluate your next offer:
How to apply this on any platform
Before you claim a welcome package, run the four steps above and jot numbers on a notepad: total rollover, effective house edge for your chosen game, expected wagering cost, and a bet size you can sustain. Do this everywhere you play—whether it’s a new brand or a familiar lobby like B7 Casino. The five‑minute math saves hours of grinding a negative proposition.
The takeaway: three numbers decide the deal
- Total rollover in dollars.
- Effective house edge after contribution.
- Bet size small enough to finish on time without busting.
If bonus value minus (rollover × EHE) is positive and you can realistically complete the required bets within the expiry using stakes ≤ 0.5% of your balance, it’s a green light. Otherwise, keep your deposit and play on your own terms. The best win with casino bonuses is often the one you choose not to chase.